fun88: Use odds to calculate your betting stake
Learn about Win-Win Lottery
What is a win-win lottery?
Win-Win lotteries simplify your betting options by eliminating the third outcome and allowing you to bet on both outcomes in one game. This means you can bet on the home team to win or draw, and you can bet on the away team to win or draw. In contrast, a “no bet on draw” means betting at lower odds and getting your stake refunded in the event of a draw.
Can you calculate a better value?
While bookmakers often offer ‘win or draw’ markets, you may be wondering if you can get better value by calculating your own win or loss odds based on moneyline odds.
Calculate win-win odds
Win-Win betting allows you to bet on two of three possible outcomes, ensuring your bet is successful, albeit at lower odds compared to straight moneyline odds.
Let Fun88 illustrate this concept using the Manchester City vs. Southampton odds as an example. Let’s say the odds on Manchester City to win are 1.971 and you believe Southampton can secure a draw, but there’s no 0.5 handicap to cover that option. Other bookmakers are offering odds of 1.25 for Southampton to win or draw, is this better value than Pinnacle’s odds?
The odds of a draw are 3.880 and you are willing to bet €100 on this. Bettors who choose Double Win should allocate part of their €100 stake to Manchester City for a win and the remainder to a draw. Although only one of these bets will win, the goal is to achieve the same profit in both situations.
We mark the bet on Manchester City as S. If Manchester City wins, the bettor will profit 0.971 x S (1.971-1) from the bet, while the remaining bet on a draw (€100-S) will be lost.
Manchester City’s profit from winning:
0.971 x S – (100-S)
In the event of a draw, the bettor will profit 2.88 x (100-S) from the draw portion, while losing the Manchester City bet.
Profit from Manchester City’s draw with Southampton:
2.88 x (100-S) – S
To ensure equal profits for both outcomes, the equation simplifies to:
0.971 x S – (100-S) = 2.88 x (100-S) – S
Solving this equation yields an S value of 66.31. Therefore, the optimal bet for a Manchester City win is €66.31 and for a draw it is €33.69.
All in all, if Manchester City win, bettors will make a net profit of €30.70, while a draw results in a slightly higher profit of €30.72.